There is news from the Indian stock market!Ahmedabad Investment
According to Reuters quoted sources, the Indian market regulatory agency is considering a series of adjustments to its derivatives trading rules in response to the risks brought about by the explosive growth of options transactions.
People familiar with the matter said that the new regulations may include bonds to increase option contracts and more detailed information disclosure.After a series of meetings with exchanges, securities firms, and fund companies in the past four months, the new regulations are being considered.
Today, India’s Mencai Sensex Index reached a record high, once exceeded 77,364 points.The latest data shows that the total amount of GDP of the year of 2023-2024 Finance and Economics was 1738.2 billion rupees, an actual increase of 8.2%year -on -year.Agra Investment
So, will the policies in the above rumors extinguish the bulls of the Indian stock market?Pune Stock
Hot option early warning
In the past few years, India’s index and stock options have soared, mainly driven by retail investors, causing warnings from market participants and government officials.In fiscal year 2023-2024, the nominal value of index option transactions has doubled more than the previous year, reaching 90.709 trillion US dollars.
Reuters said that the Indian Federal Minister of Finance warned last month that the surge in the uncontrolled of futures and option retail transactions will not only bring challenges to the market, but also challenge investor emotions and family finance.
A regulatory official said that appropriate risk disclosure and measures were taken to prevent excessive speculation or possible manipulation.Kanpur Investment
According to sources, the first step that regulators are considering is to link option transactions with the cash amount of the stock target of stocks to control the accumulation of unstable positions of stocks with poor liquidity.If the options are too much cash, the deposit requirements of options transactions will increase.
Indian options transactions are about 4 times the amount of cash transactions, and the global average is 5-15 times the amount of cash transactions.In the United States, the proportion of derivatives to cash is about 9 times.According to sources, the Indian Securities and Exchange Commission also proposes to increase the disclosure of index and stock option contracts, not just the current options activities and disclosure of unbound contracts.
According to the data of the Futures Industry Association, 78%of the 108 billion periods of term rights contracts in global transactions in 2023 were conducted on the Indian Exchange.Retail investors account for 35%of the derivatives of the country.In April, 78%of India’s largest exchanges of the State Stock Exchange came from investors with a transaction amount of less than 1 million rupees.
The regulatory agency plans to request the exchange to collect fixed costs on the broker. Regardless of its turnover, it will change the practice of collecting lower transaction costs for high -turnable brokers.
Earlier this month, the Indian Securities and Exchange Commission suggested that more stringent rules for individual stock derivatives. Once implemented, derivatives related to stocks with poor liquidity will be eliminated.However, proposed reform measures are currently in the discussion stage, and public consultation may be carried out in the next few months, and then implemented.
How long can the bull market last?Hyderabad Wealth Management
Data from Huafu Securities show that from the end of July 2000 to the end of February 2024, the Indian Sensex30 index rose about 16 times, and the increase in the local currency was significantly significantly.However, when calculating the yield of emerging market stock markets, the exchange rate problem is an important variable that cannot be ignored.From 2000 to 2024, the Indian rupee depreciated by 47.4%against the US dollar. The Indian Sensex30 Index will narrow to the 8.2 times increase in the $ 8.2 times of the US dollar at a 16 -fold increase in the local currency.
However, earlier this month, the Indian market fluctuated sharply because the results of the Indian elections were inferior to expectations.The Indian election was held from April 19th to June 1st, 2024, and the results were announced on June 4.Earlier, the Indian People’s Party, led by Modi, will achieve an overwhelming victory. The actual votes show that although the National Democratic Alliance led by the Indian People’s Party of the ruling party, although the National Democratic Alliance has won, the Indian People’s Party failed to obtain a majority of seats alone. At the same time, it won this year.The 240 seats were far lower than the 303 seats won in the 2019 election.The market is concerned that this may mean that the implementation of the Modi government’s future policy implementation may face more trade -offs, or restrict the government’s policy of promoting economic and social reform policies.
However, according to the "World Economic Outlook Report" released by IMF this year, it is expected that the actual GDP growth rate of India in 2024 is expected to reach 6.8%.This economic growth rate is not only higher than the global average and the average level of developed economies, but also higher than the economic growth level of a series of ASEAN countries.IMF predicts that in the next 5 years, India’s actual GDP’s actual growth rate is expected to maintain a central level of 6.5%.
Huafu Securities believes that from a long -term perspective, India is still a large -scale economy in Pan -South Asia.Although facing certain challenges (such as insufficient infrastructure, imbalance of industrial structure, low industrial proportion, large gap between the rich and the poor, long -term trade deficit, etc.), the huge development potential of India also cannot be ignored (such as demographic dividend, scale economy, domestic politics, domestic politicsStable, geopolitical advantages, developed IT service industry, etc.).In the future, the Indian economy is expected to maintain a mid -to -high -speed growth for a long time, and the Indian stock market is still worth paying attention to.
Guangfa Securities Dai Kang believes that in recent years, the Pan -Southern South Asian market (Southeast Asia+India) has frequently attracted market attention, and the trading logic behind it is actually a "new investment paradigm" – (1) Under the perspective of globalizationSpread effect.(2) Under the perspective of debt cycle: Low leverage+potential population dividends+lower urban rates, the pan -east -south Asian economy still has greater investment potential to support economic growth.In recent years, the global stock market performance has been differentiated, and the Indian stock market accounts for a new investment paradigm. The relatively certain growth prospects support the strong performance of the stock market.Under the new investment paradigm, the Indian stock market will enter the long cow stage.
Chennai Investment